Risk Disclosure

1. Capital Loss Risk

Prediction market outcomes are binary or multi-outcome wagers on events. If the outcome you bet on does not occur, you lose 100% of the funds committed to that position. Over many trades, cumulative losses can be substantial if risk management or sizing is aggressive.

2. Algorithmic & AI Trading Risk

AlphEdge uses statistical, ML, and LLM components to score trading opportunities. These models:

• Produce probabilistic estimates, not certainties — a "high conviction" signal can still be wrong.
• May produce out-of-distribution errors when market conditions differ from historical training data.
• May misinterpret event titles, resolution criteria, or source data.
• May be subject to bugs, regressions, or miscalibration not detected immediately.

Backtests and past performance are not predictive of future results. Live performance can differ materially from backtest performance due to slippage, liquidity constraints, and regime changes.

3. Market Risk

Prediction market prices can move sharply and unpredictably. Events once thought settled can be re-opened due to resolution disputes, oracle errors, or unforeseen developments. Low-liquidity markets may show extreme slippage or be impossible to exit at any reasonable price.

4. Smart Contract & Blockchain Risk

Trades settle on public blockchains (Polymarket currently uses Polygon). You are exposed to:

• Smart contract bugs in Polymarket's CLOB or the UMA oracle dispute system.
• Network congestion preventing timely transaction inclusion.
• Chain reorganization resulting in reverted transactions.
• Oracle resolution risk where UMA resolves a market incorrectly; disputes require a bond and may take days.
• Gas spikes making small trades uneconomic.
• Private key compromise — if your key leaks through any channel (including outside AlphEdge), the compromiser can drain your funds.

5. Platform & Technology Risk

AlphEdge relies on multiple systems that can fail individually or together: cloud infrastructure (AWS), RPC providers, data feeds, LLM providers, the Polymarket CLOB endpoint, and internal services. Outages may:

• Prevent the bot from entering or exiting a position at the desired price;
• Cause stale data to be used in decisions;
• Cause duplicate or missed orders;
• Cause P&L calculations to be temporarily inaccurate.

6. Regulatory Risk

Prediction markets operate in a complex, evolving legal landscape. Possible outcomes include:

• Platforms (including Polymarket) being ordered to geo-block additional jurisdictions at short notice.
• Funds deposited in contracts being frozen due to regulatory action.
• Tax treatment of prediction market gains/losses being unclear or changing; you are responsible for your own tax reporting.
• AlphEdge itself being required by Israeli or foreign regulators to limit features, restrict jurisdictions, or cease operations.

You are solely responsible for ensuring use is lawful in your jurisdiction. See the restricted jurisdictions list in the Terms of Service.

7. Custody & Counterparty Risk

While AlphEdge is non-custodial, funds are exposed to Polymarket's smart contracts and Polygon. If Polymarket becomes insolvent, exits, or suffers an exploit, funds in open positions may be unrecoverable. AlphEdge has no ability to reimburse losses from third-party failures.

8. Cybersecurity Risk

Despite strong controls, no system is impenetrable. You accept risks of phishing, malware on your devices, social engineering, supply-chain attacks on infrastructure, and zero-day vulnerabilities. Use a dedicated wallet, hardware-level security for master seeds, a unique password manager, and mandatory two-factor authentication.

9. No Investment Advice — Suitability

AlphEdge is a trading tool, not a financial adviser. The Service does not take into account your personal financial situation, investment objectives, tax status, or risk tolerance. The risk levels presented at onboarding (Conservative, Moderate, Aggressive, Degen) are marketing labels, not personalized suitability assessments. Consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before using real funds.

10. Responsible Use

Never:

• Use funds earmarked for rent, food, healthcare, debt repayment, or other essential needs.
• Borrow money to fund the wallet connected to AlphEdge.
• Use inheritance, retirement savings, or someone else's money.
• Increase position size to recover from losses ("chasing").

If you feel you are developing a compulsive gambling relationship with prediction markets, stop using the Service and contact a helpline. In Israel: 1-800-292-929 (Israel Center for Addiction Treatment). International: BeGambleAware.org.

11. Acknowledgment

By using AlphEdge, you acknowledge you have read this Risk Disclosure, understand the risks, and accept them fully. You agree that you will not hold AlphEdge responsible for trading losses, missed opportunities, or any consequence of using the Service, except where liability cannot be excluded by applicable law.